For politicians, it seems like it is never too soon to start talking about the next election and even though the last presidential race was only a few months ago, ambitious politicians are already laying plans for the next one. So, why not be ridiculously early in handicapping some of the figures that could play a role in 2024? Just remember, you heard it here first.
Former President Trump will float another run for president. This will keep him in the news, give him a way to stay in front of and influence the Republican Party. He will be coy, hinting at a run but never formally declaring as a candidate. In the end, he will not run again. He will realize that he has alienated just enough people who voted for him by his actions after the Nov. 2020 election that he will push even more traditionally Republican voters to the Democrats than in 2020 and he would be the longest of long shots. He will not risk losing and being labeled a two-time loser.
Former Vice President Pence seems like he took Trump’s offer to be Vice President as a stepping stone to run for president himself down the road. Now that Trump lost re-election, Pence is already positioning himself for a run, visiting early voting states of New Hampshire and Iowa.
Pence, as so many of those that Trump personally appointed, fell afoul of Trump and Trump lashed out at his own Vice President for not trying to go against the Constitution to throw out the Electoral College votes when the Vice President presided over that process on Jan. 6. With Trump still having support among a large number of Republicans, Pence has no chance. And among those in the Party who don’t support Trump and his actions, Pence is already viewed as a sellout. Pence will run for president, and will not even get to double digits in the primary and will drop out very early.
Vice President Harris rose from relative obscurity when Joe Biden picked her as his Vice President. Harris was a first term senator from California who had run for president, hardly made a blip in the polls and dropped out early.
It is not a big leap to say that Biden will not run for re-election. Harris will run and be the overwhelming favorite. Before becoming VP, she was the second most liberal senator in the country (behind self-described socialist Bernie Sanders) and so will not get a serious challenge from other far left members in the Democratic primary. Additionally, as a minority woman, Harris is the prototypical candidate for the Party.
Harris’ candidacy will make her the face of the Democratic Party and will cement the hard left/liberal movement of the Democratic Party. Primaries voters tend to be “more” than the general electorate—for Democrats more liberal, and Republicans more conservative. Harris will win the nomination and wide support among the Democratic Party. However, the last election showed that the general electorate rejects the very liberal candidate’s leanings. While Trump lost, Republicans picked up seats at literally every other level as the Democratic candidates across the nation became more liberal. With Harris at the top of the ticket, this will happen again in 2024.
First Ever Possibility?
If Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee, as expected, there is a minority woman who is making a strong early push to be the Republican nominee and that is Nikki Haley.
Haley is a former governor of South Carolina so she has executive experience and was also Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations, where she got foreign policy experience. Politically, she has the advantage of being part of the Trump Administration and is still popular with the former President. Yet, she has tried to walk a fine line in talking about the achievements of the Trump Administration while never buying into the conspiracy theories about the election and she came out against events of Jan. 6 and the attack on the Capitol.
Should Haley get the Republican nomination, it could be an election between two minority women, both of whom are first generation Americans.